THE ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM
How Trump Voters Seized the Party from Republican Leaders
The 2024 nomination of Donald Trump was both predictable and historically wildly unusual; parties almost never nominate anyone who has previously lost the presidency, no less one who organized an insurrection on the way out the door and faced dozens of criminal indictments. In this book, the author surveys and interviews hundreds of local Republican leaders across the country between 2021 and 2024, finding that most were deeply uncomfortable with the idea of nominating Trump for a third time, but had lost any control they once had over their party to a passionate core of voters. The book describes the changes to the party that occurred long before Trump ran for office, transforming it into a place he would recognize as home. It also describes how he has consolidated power, leaving local leaders powerless to steer the party.
This book publishes in the spring of 2026.
Chapter descriptions
Learning from Loss or Doubling Down?
Under the usual rules of US political parties, candidates are vetted by party insiders, and people who lose a presidential race don’t get a second shot. Trump defied this and many other historical traditions. Understanding this means understanding election narratives and beliefs about electability, and how those in the GOP today are different from what they were in the past and what the Democratic Party has.
Before 2016: Trump Didn’t Start the Fire…
This chapter looks at the rise of a conservative populist movement within the Republican Party prior to 2016. A longstanding American conservative coalition simply lost control of the party it had ruled for decades. The chapter examines several key turning points in modern American political history that enabled this transformation. It begins in 1960 with an internal party fight over election narratives: Did Richard Nixon lose narrowly to John Kennedy because Nixon was too moderate or not moderate enough? It then discusses the populist 1992 presidential campaign of Pat Buchanan, who did surprisingly well against the incumbent president George H.W. Bush in the Republican primaries, and drew attention to a small but passionate caucus within the party favoring a more conservative shift and a profound hostility toward immigration. Finally, the chapter looks at the key party moments, including the Gingrich Revolution in the 1990s, the Tea Party in the late 2000s, and the events surrounding the 2012 election, that gave this faction increasing numbers and muscle.
…But he Did Pour Gasoline on it
This chapter is a look at how Trump added to the populist takeover already in progress. It examines the critical moment of the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, and how Trump managed to win that contest despite a great many voters and party leaders distrusting him and warning against him. It then looks at how the Republican Party, at many levels, changed between 2016 and 2021. This includes a look at state party platforms and how radical they’ve become. It also looks at transformations in the Republican media and social media environments during this time. It also examines the changing relationship between Trump and the Republican National Committee and how that is an unusual one even in an age of very presidential-centered parties. Finally, it looks at the dramatic rise of the use of censures by local parties in 2021, nearly all of which were written to discipline those Republicans seen as insufficiently defensive of Trump.
Boss Trump in 2022
The fourth chapter examines an important way that Trump has consolidated power among the Republican Party’s elected officials: his control over nominations, with a particular focus on the midterm elections of 2022. Nomination control is a tool used by party bosses for centuries, from William Tweed to Richard Daley to Edward Crump to Richard Croker, although rarely has something like this been attempted at the national level. As with other bosses, Trump is more concerned with the nomination than with the general election, as it enables him to determine who is in the party and who is not, and thus what the party stands for. This control stems in large part from Trump’s unusually effective endorsements and his willingness to use those endorsements in a way presidents almost never do. He has shown an interest in and ability to build up careers and to end them, creating a cadre of elected officials, especially in Congress, who are directly indebted to him for their seats.
County Chairs and the 2024 Presidential Primary Horserace
This chapter introduce readers to the county Republican Party chairs surveyed and interviewed, explaining why these particular party figures are important and should be listened to. We see survey evidence demonstrating that Trump was definitely not their first choice in early 2023, and roughly half were undecided at that point. Nor was Trump necessarily the favorite of campaign donors. The chapter examines the differences between early Trump supporters and other Republican chairs, and competing beliefs about electability and Trump’s own chances as a third-time candidate. Republican voters, meanwhile, were pulling for him throughout this time. Over the course of 2023, party chairs came to follow the voters and slowly closed ranks behind Trump.
Trumpers and Others
This chapter examines differences among the chairs based on their support for Donald Trump. It looks at how Trump supporters, skeptics, and opponents vary in their demographic backgrounds as well as their political viewpoints, with Trump supporters representing the more populist faction in the party. It additionally looks at Trump’s success in winning over his skeptics over the course of 2023.
Indictments and Electability
This chapter begins with a discussion of electability and how beliefs about it vary importantly across the party. It examines how many chairs wanted to reject Trump as the nominee precisely because they worried about his electability, then exploring the link between a rejection of electability concerns and a belief in voter fraud claims about the 2020 presidential elections. It then examines a particular test of electability beliefs: the role that the four waves of criminal indictments against Trump in 2023 played in affecting support for him. While these indictments may have hurt Trump modestly among independent voters, they seemed to trigger a rally effect for Republican chairs and voters, who rushed to defend their embattled leader. Trump, it seems, would have prevailed even if none of those indictments had occurred, but they did catalyze support for him and likely sped up his consolidation of backers.
“You go after me, I’m coming after you!”
The eighth chapter digs into thetopic of political violence in the United States and how Trump has used the threat of violence as another tool for maintaining control over his party. Unlike some modern political coverage that suggested that what happened on January 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol was unprecedented, this provides a brief history of American political violence. It then turns to more evidence from the county chairs to understand their beliefs about political violence. While the vast majority reject violence as a legitimate act in pursuit of political ends, there are important differences in assessments of January 6th, and evidence suggests that who oppose Trump are far more worried about political violence than his supporters are.
The Party Abides
This final chapter reviews what we’ve learned from the 2024 nomination cycle, arguing that it shows a party establishment that once had control over nominations but has lost it. While elites had mixed feelings about Trump and legitimate concerns about his divisiveness and electability, they were powerless to prevent a nomination that so many partisan voters were so eager to see happen. It also explores some predictions about just what comes next for the party, the enduring strengths of the conservative populist faction, and the likely successors of Donald Trump.
Contact Author
2000 E. Asbury Ave., Denver, CO 80208
(303) 900-8621
seth.masket@du.edu